Foto di Mberg38 from Pixabay

The project of a unified and sovereign Europe has long encountered a persistent structural vulnerability: external energy dependence. While European integration has historically focused on common markets, regulatory harmonization, and institutional consolidation, the material foundation sustaining these frameworks—energy—has remained significantly exposed to global fossil fuel volatility. In this context, the current crisis reveals that such dependence is not merely economic in nature, but also a strategic vulnerability with implications for the continent’s long-term stability.

This article offers an analytical perspective on Europe’s energy transition as a central component of sovereignty in the twenty-first century. The ongoing crisis should not be interpreted as an isolated disruption, but rather as the cumulative expression of structural limitations embedded in medium- and long-term energy policy choices. In the case of Italy, for instance, a historically industrial economy faces ongoing challenges in completing its energy modernization process, marked by a still-in-progress transition from fossil-based systems to renewable sources. According to recent assessments by the International Energy Agency (IEA), European economies remain uneven in their decarbonization trajectories, which contributes to differentiated exposure to external energy shocks. This incomplete transition increases sensitivity to international price volatility, particularly during periods of geopolitical instability across the Mediterranean and the broader Middle Eastern region.

The consequences of such vulnerabilities extend beyond macroeconomic indicators. They are reflected in logistics chains, transportation costs, and inflationary pressures that directly affect daily life within European societies. Eurostat data on energy price fluctuations in recent years illustrates the transmission of external energy shocks into household-level economic stress. In prolonged periods of energy stress, such conditions may contribute to heightened perceptions of economic insecurity, potentially reinforcing the political appeal of more radical or populist narratives, although such dynamics remain complex and multifactorial rather than directly determined by energy variables alone.

In contrast, the Iberian Peninsula presents a distinct trajectory of strategic adaptation. Spain and Portugal have significantly advanced in diversifying their energy matrices, particularly through substantial investments in wind and solar power. This progress is reflected in Eurostat energy mix indicators, which show a higher share of renewables compared to several other EU member states. While this does not constitute full energy independence, it does enhance relative resilience to external shocks. At the same time, several European states remain structurally dependent on diversified external energy imports, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) from multiple global suppliers, reinforcing the systemic interdependence of the European energy architecture.

In this sense, contemporary geopolitics can increasingly be understood as a form of energy geopolitics. The diplomatic leverage and institutional stability of states and regional blocs are progressively conditioned by the robustness of their energy infrastructures. Consequently, the transition toward cleaner and more diversified energy systems should not be framed exclusively as an environmental agenda, but rather as a core dimension of strategic sovereignty and economic security, as also emphasized in European Commission energy resilience frameworks.

For Europe, the central challenge lies in accelerating a coordinated and structural reconfiguration of its energy matrix, reducing asymmetries among member states and strengthening integrated production and distribution networks. This process is less a purely technical transformation and more a long-term political choice regarding strategic autonomy in a rapidly evolving international system. In this context, the current energy crisis not only exposes existing vulnerabilities but also acts as a catalyst for a potential redefinition of Europe’s role in the global order.

References

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2025–2026). Energy Security and European Dependency on Fossil Fuels: Monitoring Reports. Paris: IEA.

European Commission. Internal Energy Market and Resilience Measures in the EU Energy System, including the Iberian Energy Mechanism framework.

European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). European Strategic Autonomy and External Energy Supply Dynamics in a Multipolar System.

Eurostat. Energy Statistics Database: Transport Energy Mix and Energy Imports in the European Union.

About the Author

Maya Nascimento is a Brazilian researcher and legal analyst with an interdisciplinary background in Criminology, Psychoanalysis, and International Law. Her academic and analytical work focuses on the intersection between law, international security, and contemporary geopolitical dynamics.
As a contributor to Brussels Diplomatic, she examines global security challenges, energy transitions, and the complexities of state sovereignty in the twenty-first century, with an emphasis on structural approaches to transformations within the international system.