Assessing the perspectives of informal #Bratislava Summit #EU27 Roadmap one has a difficulty to see any light in the end of a tunnel. Paradoxically the first Summit of #EU27 without the #UK appeared to be even more tumultuous, marked by disagreements, pessimism, and blame-games between the leaders, who with astonishing frankness have drawn new dividing lines among European nations.
A symbolism of a common Roadmap requested by #Merkel can hardly mislead anyone by its highly illusionary nature within a new dynamic situation while polarizing groups of states with conflicting interests are created among EU members .
While Mediterranean members complain about #Merkel’s austerity policy, the East Europeans Vicegrad group vigorously oppose migrant open-door strategy, and its consequences for security, rejecting quota relocating system.
The Italian prime-minister #Renzi informed press about his criticism of German surplus trade effects, rejecting any common press-conference by the end of the Summit. The crisis of Italian banks is becoming a pressing issue, but so far the #EU hasn’t changed its austerity line, which fired back on popularity of #Renzi government.
The Italian PM position came on the top of the wave of Mediterranean countries discontent with Brussels and Berlin worded in “Athens declaration” (9.09.2016) after conference of so-called Club-Med countries demanding to put an end to ‘Stablitiy and Growth Pact’, changing rules of eurozone, meaning the end of austerity imposed by Germany.
Rebellion of Mediterranean and East European leaders became more sound, than before #Brexit vote.
Moreover after the long pause between the #Brexit referendum and evocation of article 50, the warning of Luxembourg Foreign minister #Asselborn to exclude #Hungary from the EU for its dissent were not taken seriously as nobody knows how to carry out #Brexit, and logically one more country falling out would only add degree of heat to the EU trouble.
Facing the rise of Euroskepticism reflected in a number of processes across Europe with Hungarian referendum on migrants, Italian referendum on Constitutional reform, German, Dutch, and French elections – the whole ensemble of events that might lead to serious reconstruction of the EU project to advantage of the nation-states, especially with ‘Prime-Minister Geert Wilders’ and ‘President Marine Le Pen’. The only way to survival will be in tempering the Eurocrat’s appetite and transferring of powers from Brussels to member-states, and сreating a flexible network for cooperation, in the other words a the notorious ‘à la carte’.
However not everyone might be happy with these solutions, preferring organizations without foreign policy and military ambitions like EFTA, who express readiness to consider the UK membership, and might welcome some other discontent EU members.
From Bratislava Summit #EU27 in one year one might witness a birth of new alliances grown from current sub-groups of the EU: the UK and Nordic countries joining EFTA, and the fragilized EU with major subgroups of Mediterranean states, and Vicegrad group under symbolical Franco-German chairmanship.
Finally, by the 25 of March 2017 there will be a big question if there is much to celebrate after 60 years of the EU haphazard integration and galloping expansion.
By the time it might shrink back to its origins to European Economic Community (TEEC) as once it started in Rome in 1957 with slightly different list of participants -back to square one…