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What is going on in Libya?

There is an incessant unusual situation in Libya and the all world’s politicians and Armys are getting involved in various operations and monitoring activities in these days: they are continuing to have confidence in the complex negotiation for the formation of new Libyan government. Italy was  clear about that: only the future Libyan National Unity could ask to have an active role with the others countries.

Therefore, the negotions with Libyan counterparts are going on thanks to Martin Kobler, ONU’s emissary, and he is trying to talk to the head of the Parliament in Tobruk, recognised by the international community as a political mediator for the formation of the new Government in Libya, and the members of Assembly that are boycotting the Libyan political agreement.

An important step has been obtaining by an agreement for the Committee on the safety of new Libyan government, made up of 18 different men from the militias, tribes, religions and conflicting loyalties. This outcome is important for the diplomatic point of view for the Libya’s future.

Anyway, they must behave with the area’s safety also we are talking about a new real military operation in the future.

No one city is safety at the moment: Tripoli, Tobruk, Benghazi, Sabatha, Misurata, Derna and Sirte, that is living a situation as Raqqa in Siria.

The number of Isis forces in Libya is over 2000 fighters but nobody wants a direct military operation because Libya’s population lives in displeasure and disorder and Isis can take advantage of that to recruit rebels.

On the Italian side, the Minister of Defense could deploy military forces: from AMX fighter-bombers to drones and aircraft ready to take off from Sigonella and Trapani. Moreover, the Navy is just in front of the Libyan coast for the operation “Safe Sea”, with the aim to protect offshore platforms ENI to defend national interests and the Greenstream pipeline terminal in Melata, west of Tripoli.

But what kind of consequences could have a military attack for Europe and especially Italy?

–    Demographic, with a strong immigration that could not be controlled;

–    Global security, as Libya’s up to the Tunisia’s border, part of Egypt, ‘cause their political situation is not stable rightnow;

–    Energy, if Libya falls, Mediterranean and Sothern Europe will follow it.

Davide Renna

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