Who benefits from the war on the South-East of the Ukraine?
It is obvious today that “counter-terrorist operation” (CTO) in the Ukraine has transformed into the civil war which amounted to more than 205,8 mln hryvnas (17 mln US dollars) bankrupt-state government announced. “Not less than 3000 hryvnas monthly” are promised to militants of the National guard and to frontier guards, and according to this, Kiev doesn’t count to finish CTO soon. Though in due season Turchinov and Poroshenko promised a “blitzkrieg” – it is well known on example of Adolf Hitler how such “blitzkriegs” end. It is only natural that the US President Barack Obama and British Prime-Minister David Cameron “gave Vladimir Putin” exactly one month to “avert his policy towards the Ukraine”.
There has always been Russian troops in the Crimea and Sevastopol – is not as much as the base of the Black sea fleet but the city of the Russian military glory. We call it so since Empress Catherine the Great. During the escalation of the political crisis in the Ukraine Russian contingent was really enlarged but didn’t overcome allowed and negotiated level – 25 thousand pers. And it is precisely thanks to these “polite people” patrolling streets of the cities of the Crimean autonomy there were no even a shot on the peninsula. This is an undisputed fact.
Who are these militiamen who are rooted to Russia by the elite of the western politics and mass media? As a reply they defiantly put on the uniform of Russian CIA and hanging out Russian flags and announce implementing of Russian laws in DIR and LIR, transfer to ruble and ask for a 30 bln$ credit giving the world press a new wave of headlines speaking of Russian invasion to “nezalezhnaya” (independent Ukraine). What is it: ones primitive counting on the recurrence of the Crimean scenario? Or a planned company aimed on involving Russia by any means in the war with its neighbor? And now militiamen of Lugansk instead of helping their brothers from Donbass for unclear reason attack Ukrainian frontier guards fighting on the borders with Russia. Can we be convinced that tomorrow these militiamen who keen on wearing Russian military uniform will not simulate a gangway of “Russian troops” through a frontier post?
And this is just what the West needs today, searching with microscope Russian footprint along the whole border. And it “finds”. But only in exclusive CNN reports. A rear “luck” of the TV group of the channel who “forgot” to show bloody events in Odessa replicated all around the world. Two trucks with “chechens”! With a light Caucasian accent they joyfully reply on a leading question of the reporter, “Aren’t you Kadyrov’s guys?” – “yes, we are kadyrovtsy”.
Well, thanks not “putintsy”.
PR during the plague
IT is a well-known fact that the idea of the creation of DIR as a centre of resistance to those who financed Maidan – oligarchs Poroshenko and Kolomoiskiy – belongs to “Yanukovich’s pocket” Rinat Akhmetov. Then leaders of DIR – Denis pushilin and Pavel Gubarev – were put an innocent task – to self-proclaim a republic and hold mass meetings. Akhmetov planned to use DIR as an instrument of pressure on a new Kiev power to save business-preferences and political influence. Akhmetov needed neither Slavyansk nor Kramatorsk, nor militiamen of Strelkov jumping from nowhere, nor Russian “policymaker” Borodai. But the protest went out of control and the new leaders of DIR picked up the “banner of resistance” with their armed arms and even implemented sanctions against Obama, Merkel and Cameron forbidding them entrance to the territory of DIR.
Nice present for Kiev and Washington: look, Russia came to the Ukraine! With guns in arms and a flag atilt.
Todays information war has stepped into a new phase. US political and media establishment by the efforts of their mass-media has “fairly convinced” people of the west in the presence of “Russian tanks” in Donbass and Lugansk. That Russia is dangerous. That Putin builds new USSR with all its attributes, and his imperial ambitions will crash the borders and destroy western system of values. And his following step in this direction is occupation of the Ukraine.
Herewith western mass media silence the fact that Prime-Minister Medvedev announced several days ago: 7-8 thousands of refugees arrive from the Ukraine to Russia daily. Of course, some can suppose that refugees from occupied territory run to invaders concentration camps. However, I am press secretary of the Department of State Jennifer Psaki and I will not suppose such things.
By the way, there is a backroom rule on the Russian TV channels forbidding appeals to the war with the Ukraine. But the Ru-net, as if on cue, is flooded with “patriotic majority”: anonymous and real users and authors claim personally Putin to do exactly what the West is accusing him of – to use the army. “Couch potatoes” insistently pump irresponsible pseudo patriotic hysteria which keynote is a rescue of fraternal people.
Remember 100 years ago Russian Empire as well as Russia today being on an economic upturn under the same motto was mired in the World War I. In 1900-1913, annual economic growth rates amounted to 6%, surpassing advancement of all other developed countries. It was not only agriculture which developed, but also metallurgy, oil and timber industry, engineering and aviation industry – most powerful aircrafts were built “Vityaz’” and “Il’ya Muromets”. Since 1880 to 1917 58 thousand kilometers of railways were built, freightage volume grew for 7% annually. In 10 pre-war years steamship fleet enlarged on 32%. Export exceeded import, and Russia was the first country in the world by the volume of grain export. Consequences of the World War I for Russia are well known – economic collapse and a civil massacre.
So what are these internet-activists and militiamen calling Russia to press for? Implementing total economic sanctions supported by the EU? World isolation of our country? World War III?
Russia saves Europe
If ones imagine that Putin accepts the call to “involve” in the Eastern-Ukrainian events and gives a command to his army than the following thing happens. All possible sanctions against Russia will be applied which effect will have a destructible power both for Russian and European, living in hard times, economy. The US Administration in parallel with applying sanctions will insist on implementing their drat of investment agreement with Europe based on the discussed now trade pact The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, which will create a crisis-state EU in an appendix of the US economy. This means to say that Russia saves Europe with its non-involvement in the Ukrainian military company.
Moreover, Europe understands that. Therefore, there are no any meaningful sanctions from their side. Russia has secured rejection of Syria from chemical weapons and, as western mass media described, Vladimir Putin personally “played a role of an ambassador of peace” in Iran and weakened economic sanctions effect – it all resulted in the victory of favorable to Russia political powers.
“The main winner in the EU parliamentary elections is Vladimir Putin” – British observer G.Weidenfeld publicized few days ago in German newspaper Die Welt. In his opinion “Russia has strengthened her influence all over the world”. There is one obvious conclusion already – experts suppose that new composition of the EU Parliament will be more compliant in the dialogue with Russia on the “South Stream” issue.
Narrow-minded business of Joe Biden
Any military actions involving Russia on the territory of the Ukraine will cross this political picture. However they’ll help finally disintegrate Ukraine as an self-sufficient state which as a result of the war will turn into a “second Yugoslavia”, shattered into 5-6 mini-states. The USA targeted on the reclamation of hydrocarbon depths of the Ukraine has such shatter-experience probe-tested during the military operation in Kosovo.
There is no secret that Joe Biden’s son was appointed as a member of the board of directors of the largest Ukrainian gas producing company Burisma Holdings. By the way, isn’t it a good subject-matter for Navalny’s investigation? Or Biden’s son is allowed? After all Biden’s son is not the only highly-appointed American official in Burisma Holdings: its general manager is Devon archer – ex-senior advisor of John Kerry, US Secretary of State. In the meantime big western corporations ExxonMobil, Shell and Chevron already own licenses on the development work and exploitation of shale gas in Lvovskaya, Kharkovskaya and Donetskaya region. According to the Shell data Donetskaya region resources amounted by experts to 2 trln. US dollars. First industrial-scale-production of shale gas can be recovered in 2017 already.
In the early March acting President of the Ukraine Alexander Turchinov signed an agreement with IMF on the extension of the financial assistance in exchange for the Ukrainian gas-transport system which chargeless handed to Chevron upon signature.
Russian economic breakout
At the same time Russia has been preparing for a largest economic breakout on the south-east. Not of the Ukraine, but of the world. After signing a gas contract with China began a final stage of negotiations on the oil contract with Iran. Next is Qatar who will held next session of GECF – organization which includes Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Boliviya. This gas cartel in the name of three main world gas exporters – Russia, Qatar, Iran – will control at least 55% world reserves of gas and will have a huge influence on the energy markets of the EU and Asia. Of course the USA will oppose it but if Russia doesn’t make any mistakes and doesn’t involve in any other needless war scale of economic opposition will nod in favor of Moscow.
Europe delicately feels changes. Now French President Francois Holland promises to perform the contract on the procurement of helicopter carriers “Mistral” to Russia, and German chancellor Angela Merkel announces that “no decision on implementing trade-economic sanctions against Russia was made”. Merkel, however, underlines that “sanctions issue can be discussed in the future and decision will depend on the development of the situation in the Ukraine and actions, undertaken by Russia”.
Here it is important to understand what chancellor Merkel means to say – countries which have close economic ties with Russia now. Moscow shouldn’t react on provocations and shouldn’t involve in the war which can transform only in the World War III. Because military actions on the south-east of Europe on the continent are castaway. Except country from the other continent. They’ll allow American troops under the aegis of NATO settle in the Ukraine as “peacemaking forces” at first. And never quit from there. Especially after accession to the NATO.
As journalist Juliya Latynina wrote, even Mikhail Khodorkovkiy, meeting with DIR leaders in Donetsk, explained that the war is profitable for the USA: “in any dismay dollar grows up”. World War III – is a war of economies, corporations, raw and energy giants. Rockets, tanks, aircrafts and all other types of arms – are no more than instruments which can be used during the war of the 21 century or not used at all. All depends on scenario. And on this who write it.
Tail wags duck
Lame duck – is American slang, included in a world political dictionary which means that politician is unable to make life-changing decisions and launch large-scale projects during the second half of his term. The US president who is in 2 years from the end of his term is just a “lame duck” at the moment. He hasn’t and can not have any “horizons” of actions because new strategy will be fulfilled by the new president. And Obama just plays out his final act of performance where all dots must be put over i’s.
Obama’s problem is his political career – is a long dot-dot-dot. No successes on international arena, where “Syria project” – last defeat of the White House. Social programs stall. Economy is in stagnation, printing press works without repose accelerating inflation. China, the US foreign debt to whom exceeded 800 bln$ turned his back to Washington in favor to Moscow. Project “Shale gas” happened to be a soap-bubble and Washington cannot offer anything for the EU economy at the moment. Russian shadowgraph has become clearly seen from Europe’s back being a main player on energy market. Russia has grabbed the biggest piece of the Iranian problem and found an escape from Syrian crisis. Russia targeted on the Asian markets extensively trades with Europe.
“Lame duck” is time- and decision-constrained. Political players and big business will not let US president begin a vast geopolitical long-playing project. In current, almost stalemate situation, he can only try to finish the project, which was launched during his term. And pass another president fruits of his victories or a pile of his problems. That is why the White House is on the edge and makes haste. Then organized project “Ukrainian crisis” today threatens to turn Obama from a lame duck into legless one.
The fact is that American experts in color revolution based on a fake thesis that Putin reintegrates Soviet Union. This thesis is possibly successful for internal US user but already doubtful for Europe and obvious with its absolute nonsense for whole former Soviet Union came home to the hearts of Donbass militiamen who decided to play to the US administration with guns in arms and to reintegrate the USSR. This is a well-known American technology – to create a hotbed of tension and to send troops. It was so in Iraq when the USA announced of a presence of chemical weapons here, waving with a tube with wash powder in evidence. It was so in Afghanistan where the USA for a long time supported Taliban and then sent troops here to fight with them. They wanted to do the same with Syria but opposed Putin, who didn’t want a war in Syria as well as he doesn’t want it in Ukraine. And today responding on desperate calls to take part in negotiations between Kiev and leaders of the South-Eastern opposition, Putin proclaims that Kiev powers have to negotiate with opposition themselves, underlining that Russia is not a member of this conflict.
It is appropriate to cite a passage from the US security services telegram published on Wikileaks website: “experts say that Russia is very concerned about strong separation of the minds on the NATO accession issue. Given that majority of Russians come out against the accession, situation can lead to a serious break using violence and even, in worst case, civil war. In such case Russia will have to choose: involve or not, and Russia doesn’t want to face such choice”.
This note is of 2008. This means to say that already than world community had to think of a bloodshed prospects, about which Russia warned and hasn’t wanted to have anything in common with.
But Kiev’s Maidan is not a Russian invention. And it wasn’t Kremlin who put up 5 bln$ in its “selforganisation” in what assistant of the Secretary of State Victoria Nuland confessed. First serious surprise for V.Nuland as well as for the whole American intelligence was a triumphal restitution of Crimea to Russia. Second – reversion to Russian people a memory that Russia has no friends but her two reliable allies – her army and her fleet. These words of Alexander III found their metamorphic reflection in the emblem of our country – in two-headed eagle.
As for surprises, Victoria, there will be more. And no one.
A russian citizen!